With the covid-19 pandemic behind us, the Carnival weekend, one of the main dates for national tourism, is expected to move BRL 8.18 billion this year, according to an estimate by the Economy and Innovation Division of the National Confederation of Commerce of Goods , Services and Tourism (CNC). If the projection is confirmed, revenue from businesses associated with tourism, such as bars, restaurants and hotels, will be 26.9% higher than that recorded in 2022, in values already updated for inflation.
The strong increase, driven by the definitive normalization of activities affected by the restrictions on social contact imposed by the pandemic, will be insufficient to recover the level of revenues to that registered in 2020 – it will be 3.3% below. That year, Carnival took place within normal limits, moving R$ 8.47 billion, in values for January of this year. Covid-19 would arrive in the country shortly after the weekend.
“Carnival is considered the Brazilian ‘Tourism Christmas.’ Brazilian tourist calendar, the restrictive measures meant the cancellation of Carnival in several regions of the country, in the last two years”, says an excerpt from the report on the CNC survey.
Due to the pandemic, revenue from businesses associated with tourism dropped 43% in Carnival 2021, compared to 2020. In 2022, with vaccination already advanced, there was a recovery, but the R$ 6.45 billion moved still were 24% below the values moved in 2020.
According to the CNC, the highlight will be the segment of bars and restaurants, with an expected turnover of R$ 3.63 billion. Passenger transport companies should move R$ 2.35 billion, while the revenue from accommodation services in hotels and inns should move R$ 890 million. “Together, these three segments will account for almost 84% of all revenue generated during the biggest holiday on the national calendar”, says the CNC report.
With the recovery, the study estimates that businesses associated with tourism will generate 24,600 temporary jobs for the next Carnival.
“Cooks (4.40 thousand), kitchen assistants (3.45 thousand) and cleaning professionals (2.21 thousand) should be the most demanded professions this year”, says the entity’s report.
Even so, the number will fall short of Carnival 2020, when 26,100 temporary jobs were generated, and 2019, with 24,700 temporary jobs.
Despite overcoming covid-19, for this year’s Carnival, “the main obstacle to reestablishing revenues at the pre-pandemic level derives from less favorable economic conditions, such as significant price adjustments, higher interest rates and commitment to income”, says CNC.
As per the study report, the inflation of services associated with tourism was higher than average. According to IPCA data, the official price index calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), in 2022, the price of airline tickets jumped 23.53%. Accommodation was 18.21% more expensive, while the average increase in tour packages was 17.16%. In aggregate, the IPCA rose 5.79% last year.
Another restriction on demand for tourism is the general rise in interest rates, in the wake of the monetary tightening carried out by the Central Bank (BC). The CNC report recalls that leisure trips are often paid for with credit, in installments.
“The average interest rate on loans and financing freely obtained by individuals reached 59.0% per year – the highest level since August 2017 (62.3% per year). This phenomenon, combined with the historically high level of indebtedness of consumers in the recent months, certainly appears as an obstacle to the expansion of spending on leisure”, says the CNC report.