deficit expected to fall sharply in 2023, to 6.8 billion euros

According to the draft social security financing bill, this deficit of 6.8 billion euros is well below the 17.8 billion expected.

the social security deficit will be significantly reduced in 2023, to 6.8 billion euros against 17.8 billion expected this year, according to the draft social security financing bill, published by the Medical Press Agency and consulted on Sunday by AFP. These figures, which cover a broader scope than the general scheme of social security funds, nevertheless confirm the spectacular recovery of the accounts since the abyssal record of 2020 (nearly 39 billion).

Despite the slowdown in growth, the government is counting on more dynamic revenue than expenditure, with contributions boosted by inflation and rising wages. The improvement will mainly benefit the health branch, whose losses will be reduced from around 20 billion in 2022 to 6.5 billion in 2023. 11 billion to only 1 billion next year, although this provision “may turn out to be very insufficient“, according to the opinion of the High Council of Public Finances, quoted in the document.

Beyond this deadline, the deficit in the health insurance branch should continue to decline at a much more moderate pace, settling at 2.6 billion in 2026. Conversely, the old-age branch should quickly fall again: close to balance this year (-1.7 billion), it should widen its losses to 13.6 billion in 2026. A balance that takes into account a “marked degradation» of the system of territorial and hospital civil servants (CNRACL), but also of «the objective of gradually raising the effective retirement agewhich should continue to increase in the coming years.

However, the draft bill does not include any measure of pension reform, while the executive is considering introducing an increase in the legal age or the contribution period by an amendment during the debates in Parliament in October. In addition, the family and industrial accident branches should remain in surplus at least until 2026, while the autonomy branch, in deficit in 2023, should then return to the green.

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