Focus bulletin lowers inflation estimate to 5.71% this year

After the positive prognosis left by the May IPCA-15 (0.51%), the projection for the official inflation for 2023 dropped again in this week’s Focus Bulletin. The data were released on Monday (29). As for 2024, the focus of monetary policy, market analysts’ estimates for the IPCA remained stable.

The expectation for the IPCA – official inflation index – this year at Focus fell from 5.80% to 5.71%. A month earlier, the median was 6.05%. For 2024, the projection shows maintenance at 4.13% after four weeks of decline. A month ago, it was 4.18%.

Considering only the 69 estimates updated in the last five working days, the median for 2023 dropped from 5.75% to 5.50%. For 2024, in turn, the projection rose from 4.14% to 4.16%, considering 68 updates in the period.

Despite the new drop, the median in Focus for official inflation in 2023 is still about 1 percentage point above the target ceiling (4.75%), pointing to three years of non-compliance with the Central Bank’s main mandate, after 2021 and 2022. For 2024, the median exceeds the center of the target (3.00%), but is within the upper tolerance interval, which goes up to 4.50%.

The median for the 2025 IPCA remained at 4.00%, repeating the rate of four weeks ago. The estimate for the 2026 IPCA also continued at 4.00%, the same percentage as a month earlier. The target for 2025 is 3.00% (margin from 1.50% to 4.50%). There is still no defined goal for 2026.

At this month’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) meeting, the BC maintained its projections for inflation in the reference scenario with estimates of 5.8% in 2023 and 3.6% for 2024. In an alternative scenario, in which the Selic remains stable throughout the relevant horizon, the authority’s projections are 5.7% for 2023 and 2.9% for 2024.

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