“Joe Biden’s economic record is not a sufficient argument for the Democrats to win the American presidential election”


uA slogan does not take stock. Joe Biden is learning this the hard way. For several months, the President of the United States has been traveling the country to praise “Bidenomics”, a generic name that he has appropriated to designate the economic policy pursued for almost three years. But, while he plans to run for a second term, the White House after-sales service is struggling to convince the Americans that their situation has improved, despite flattering macroeconomic data.

After the Covid-19 shock, growth rebounded faster than elsewhere, and continues to accelerate. Inflation has spared no country, but it is slowing more quickly across the Atlantic. As for unemployment, the rate was 6.3% when Mr. Biden arrived at the White House. Three years later, the figure was divided by almost two, and 14 million jobs were created, an unprecedented figure during a mandate.

Yet voters tend to look at the gl half empty. Two-thirds of them disapprove of the way Mr. Biden is running the economy. Regarding employment, an ABC News poll-Washington Post indicates that a third of voters consider the situation to be bad. According to a Yahoo!-Ipsos study, only 21% of Americans believe that the results are better than in other developed countries. Finally, two out of three do not believe in the fall in inflation.

“Even if the United States is doing well, “Bidenomics” is not making an impression on the population, and that is a disaster for the Democrats”summarizes Laurence Nardon, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, author ofa note on Joe Biden’s economic policy. The latter may feel a certain ingratitude from his compatriots after having undertaken a vast program of investment and support for the middle cl. He took protectionist measures to revive the industry and helped unions, considered the best vectors for improving the standard of living of employees. The objective is to close the liberal parenthesis begun under Ronald Reagan and to relaunch the social elevator, in order to divert voters from the populist temptation embodied by Donald Trump.

The poison of inflation

A survey published at the beginning of November by the New York Times confirms that everything remains to be demonstrated: one year before the election, Donald Trump would win with a substantial lead in five out of six key states. Only 2% of those questioned consider that the economic situation is good. One of the lessons from the poll is that voters are more concerned about inflation than employment, while having the feeling that Democrats are mobilizing more on the second issue.

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