Pension reform: and here is 49.3 again
We count, we call each other, we worry and recount. A week before the public vote in the Assembly on pension reform (scheduled for Thursday, March 16), plus a phone call without a calculator, and plus a total without cold sweats. It’s tight, very tight. If the entire Macronist majority approved the text (which is not won), it would take 35 LR votes to have the text adopted. But today, the party of Eric Ciotti thinks the range of LR deputies “for” between 32 and 36, while 15 would vote “against”, the remaining ten not being fixed.
After weeks of negotiations, we are there: the LRs have asked a lot, the government has given in to them a lot, the cost of the measures has increased and yet the margin remains too narrow not to put the future of the text in jeopardy. danger… Except to bring out the 49.3 tool which Elisabeth Borne absolutely did not want. Because the social climate is already eruptive and she wants to prove her usefulness as a negotiator.
Until the last moment, things can change of course, and some ministers still think that a majority will prevail after the work of the joint committee.
The Prime Minister continues to work there, multiplying the exchanges with the parliamentarians – Eric Ciotti and Olivier Marleix this Wednesday -, and relying on the coherence of the so-called “government” right. But for those who listen, it is curious to note that the Elysée does not have the same fears about the use of 49.3. “We have always said that in principle it was not excluded,” said an adviser.
Emmanuel Macron himself had recently criticized in the Council of Ministers “LR without compass”, on which we cannot count. Anxious to move on, he seeks efficiency. He will not take the risk of having the text pushed back.
And yet, with a 49.3, the story would not be the same. For Elisabeth Borne perhaps, less assured of staying in place. But also for this “post-retirement” on which the president relies so much. “It would be a sign of weakness that would damage our ability to reform,” said a deputy close to him. Especially since another personality has a calculator. Lawrence Berger has been insinuating for a few days that a 49.3 would constitute a “democratic vice” and would legitimize the continuation of the conflict.
“False”, retorts the Elysée. If 49.3 is used on the text coming out of the CMP, that is to say having integrated the concessions made to Parliament, “there is no democratic subject”. At one week, calculate and prepare the minds.