Pensions: the government faces two motions of censure after its 49.3

The Libertés Indépendants Outre-Mer et Territoires group, or LIOT, is the smallest of the 10 parliamentary groups that make up the National Assembly. Last fall, Emmanuel Macron still hoped to forge an alliance with them. However, it is LIOT’s motion of censure, tabled this Friday at the start of the afternoon, which has a (small) chance of bringing down the government, during a vote normally scheduled for next Monday.

The day after the activation of article 49-3 of the Constitution to pass his pension reform , the government faces two motions of censure which were tabled on time. One comes from the RN but its future is immediately compromised by the refusal of the deputies of the Nupes to vote for it. The other comes from the LIOT group. “The use of 49.3 is a sign of the failure of this government”, declared on BFMTV Charles de Courson, the first signatory of this so-called “transpartisan” censure motion.

“Votable” by the left and by the RN

The left is associated with it and has co-signed it. “It had been decided that in any case the Insoumis would file a motion of censure, the whole Nupes agreed for it to be filed. We refuse the trivialization of 49.3. […] We have decided to give the greatest possible chances to censorship and therefore to withdraw our own motion of censure in favor of LIOT’s motion, “said this Friday, on France Inter, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France rebellious.

On paper, the motion of censure LIOT will be able to count on the votes of the 20 members of the group (without certainty that all will vote it), of the 149 deputies of the Nupes and the 88 members of the RN, who vote all the motions of censure whatever or their origin. Which makes a total of 257 votes. Presented by a group with a vague positioning but which wants to be centrist, it has the advantage of being able to be voted on by the left, which thus does not vote for the RN, and by the RN, which does not vote for the left.

If the non-registered deputies Nicolas Dupont-Aignan and Adrien Quatennens (who should find the LFI group in April) will vote for censure, they will however miss 28 votes to reach the absolute majority of the National Assembly (287 votes instead of 289 in normal times because seats are currently vacant), which means that the fate of the government rests in the hands of the LR deputies. Out of a total of 62 members, it would take half to adopt this motion of censure, which would cause the rejection of the pension reform and the fall of the government.

Low probability

The probability is low. On the one hand, there is no LR deputy co-signing this motion, contrary to the wishes of the LIOT deputies. “I regret that my colleagues from LR are not signatories, but I hope that many of them will vote for it”, declared from the Four Columns Bertrand Pancher, president of the LIOT group.

“We are not tabling a motion and apart from a few lost people, we will not vote on the other motions”, analyzes an LR deputy on condition of anonymity. A dozen LR deputies would be likely to approve the motion, like Fabien di Filippo, who confirmed that he would vote for it. The LR deputy for the Territoire de Belfort, Ian Boucard, will do the same. “This is real bullshit. Some have no limit, ”said LR deputy from Aisne Julien Dive.

Already very divided on pensions, the LR group once again publicly displays its divisions on the motion of censure. “We will not associate ourselves with any motion of censure and will not vote for any motion of censure”, declared Thursday at the end of the day Eric Ciotti, the president of LR. He added not to “add chaos to chaos”. He was speaking after a meeting of the group during which this majority position was adopted.

But this position is disputed within the LR deputies and some would be ready to vote for it . “Each deputy remains completely free to go and participate in another motion of censure,” said the deputy. Aurélien Pradié, who leads the slingshot . Bertrand Pancher appealed to LR deputies. ” Do not be afraid. Come with us. The more you will be, the more this will allow this motion of censure to pass and ensure that we abandon this pension reform, ”he added on LCP.

The chances of reaching the threshold of 30 voters for the motion at LR remain slim.

Get the Assembly to vote

For the executive, this motion of censure will replace the vote of the law. “49.3 allows opposition parties to file a motion of censure. This motion of censure will be subject to a vote and this vote, ultimately, will be those who are for or those who are against the reform. This reform followed a democratic process, hours of debate in the Assembly, hours of debate in the Senate, a vote in the Senate and there will be a vote in the National Assembly in the coming days,” said Elisabeth Borne on Thursday. evening at the “20 Hours” of TF1.

Conversely, the left believes that this reform has no legitimacy because it will never have been voted on at the Palais-Bourbon.

“If the motion is rejected, we can move on,” hopes a Renaissance deputy. For now, the use of 49.3 has only fueled the dispute. After the impromptu demonstration that took place on Thursday evening at Place de la Concorde in Paris, other cities such as Rennes were affected by incidents. The left intends to remobilize and use all the political weapons at its disposal, starting with an appeal to the Constitutional Council or the launch of a referendum of shared initiative .