SURVEY – The Elabe Political Observatory “Les Echos”

SURVEY – The Elabe Political Observatory “Les Echos”

Posted Dec 1 2022 at 04:03 PMUpdated Jan 5, 2023, 5:06 PM

Find below each beginning of the month the results of the political observatory carried out by Elabe for “Les Echos” and Radio Classique. A barometer which scrutinizes the evolution of the confidence rating of the Head of State and his Prime Minister as well as the popularity rating of the main French political figures.


Trust in the executive:


Do the French trust or distrust the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister to deal effectively with the main problems facing the country? Find every month, the evolution of the confidence rating of Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne for all French people, but also according to the partisan preference of the respondents and their votes in the presidential election.

Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne.

Emmanuel Macron and Elisabeth Borne.Sipa

Confidence in the executive is down at the start of 2023. 32% (-3) of French people questioned by Elabe place their trust in the President of the Republic to deal effectively with the problems facing the country. Although this level of confidence has already been recorded on numerous occasions and in particular in November 2022, it is nonetheless the lowest measured since April 2020. In general, his confidence has fluctuated between 32% and 38% since his re-election. . Except of the month of december , confidence has tended to fall since the summer period (-6 points in 5 months). The share of people who do not trust him at all, however, has remained stable since September (33%).

Politically, the decline is present in the main electorates. However, confidence remains solid among first-round (82%, -3 points) and second-round (66%, stable) voters. It is fragile with the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon (17%, -8 points), those of Marine Le Pen (13%, -2) and abstainers (24%, -3).

Professionally, the decline is confirmed among all assets. Managers remain the most favorable to Emmanuel Macron (40%, -7 after +10 in December), followed by intermediate professions (29%, -3 points), then working classes (23%, -5 and -9 in two month). Within them, the decline is particularly marked among employees (-7 in one month and -14 points in two months). After two low measurements in November and December, there has been a slight increase among retirees (39%, +2 points and +4 in two months).

In terms of ages, trust is falling among the under-65s and rising among the over-65s. In detail, confidence is lower among 25-64 year olds (between 28% and 31%), slightly higher among those under 25 (35%, -5) and among those over 65 (39%, + 2).

In terms of income, it is among the wealthiest households that the decline is rooted (41%, -6); nevertheless households having difficulty completing the month remain, in proportion, twice as numerous to trust it (22%, stable).

The confidence granted to the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, tends to be correlated with that of Emmanuel Macron. 27% (-2 points) of French people trust him to effectively tackle the problems facing the country.

Politically, the main electorates are down with the exception of that of Emmanuel Macron, whether in the first round (75%, +1 point) or in the second round (57%, +2 points). This level is 11-12% among Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters and 17% among abstainers.

Socio-demographically, the movement remains similar to that recorded with Emmanuel Macron with a sharp drop among executives (26%, -14 points against +13 the month before) and among the working classes (16%, -8) and in almost all age groups. Elisabeth Borne is nevertheless progressing among retirees (42%, +7) and over 65s (42%, +6).


The popularity of personalities:


Do the French have a positive or negative image of the main political figures? Who are the favorite personalities of the supporters of En Marche, of the left, of the right, of the FN… find every month the ranking of personalities carried out by Elabe for “Les Echos” and Classical Radio.

From left to right, top: Bruno Le Maire, Edouard Philippe and Olivier Véran.  Below: Yannick Jadot, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.

From left to right, top: Bruno Le Maire, Edouard Philippe and Olivier Véran. Below: Yannick Jadot, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Marine Le Pen.

Edouard Philippe remains at the top of the ranking of personalities policies; Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella continue their progress, Jean-Luc Mélenchon loses support in public opinion.

Edouard Philippe remains at the top of the ranking with 43% positive opinion (stable): he remains the only personality to generate more positive than negative opinions. Already second in December, Marine Le Pen progresses by 3 points; at 34%, it is 1 point from its highest level ever recorded (35% in April 2022). Bruno the Mayor is 3rd at 31% (+3); it thus catches up with part of the drop recorded since August 2022 (34%), this is the first measurement to increase since that date.

Rear Nicolas Sarkozy (29%, +1), Olivier Veran is 5th (29%, -1); its image has remained relatively stable since May. Jordan Bardella ranks 6th and has recorded a constant increase in popularity since October (25%, +1 and +5 in 3 months). The popularity of Jean-Luc Melenchon stands at 20% (-1 point after -4 in December), far from the 35% recorded in May 2022. Five years ago, it had already experienced a significant drop in popularity: it stood at 23% in January 2018, down 11 points since the election.

The ministers, Pap Ndiaye (46% don’t know), Francois Braun (58% don’t know) and Olivier Dussopt (64% don’t know) are relatively unknown; they respectively record 14%, 10% and 6% of positive image for a negative image rate 3 to 5 times higher. Clementine Autain is known to around half of French people: it has a positive image of 13% (+4 points since the last measurement carried out in October) and a negative image of 39%.

Among left-wing voters and environmentalists, the decline in popularity of Jean-Luc Mélenchon is accelerating at the start of the year (50%, -10 points, -22 points since May 2022). Notably, he recorded a similar drop among his first-round electorate (65%, -9). This is its lowest measurement since the 2022 election. This disappointment does not, however, seem to benefit anyone on the left: Fabien Roussel is at 38% (+4), Yannick Jadot at 37%, (-6), François Ruffin is at 35% (-5 points), Clémentine Autain is at 28%, Olivier Faure at 20% (-7). Within this electorate, the strongest increase is in favor of Marine Le Pen (19%, +8; 22% +11 points among Jean-Luc Mélenchon voters alone).

With the voters of Emmanuel Macron, Edouard Philippe made up for much of the decline recorded at the end of 2022 (84%, +12, after -16 points over 3 months). Bruno Le Maire progressed strongly in January (70%, +8 in one month and +11 in three months) and almost returned to its highest levels recorded in the summer period (72% in August). Olivier Véran (66%) loses one place despite an increase of 1 point, he is followed by three members of the government: Gabriel Attal (58%, stable), Gérald Darmanin (56%, +7) – at its highest level since May 2022 within this electorate – and Eric Dupont-Moretti (41%, -5). Further, Pap Ndiaye is 10th, at 34% (for 40% of no opinion). François Braun (57% of no opinion) and Olivier Dussopt (65% of no opinion) are the least known ministers; they record respectively 23% and 15% of positive image.

Among the voters of Marine Le Pen and Eric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen largely dominates the ranking (82%, -2) ahead of Jordan Bardella (63%, +1) who has gained 11 points in this electorate since the re-election of Emmanuel Macron. Eric Zemmour is 3rd (47%, +3).

Survey carried out from January 3 to 4, 2023 with a sample of 1,005 people according to the quota method.

find here all the results of the political barometer.

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