It is rather the kind of sentence heard during a move between friends. When, when ping the Norman wardrobe through the living room window, preferably without damaging the edges, one of the reinforcements says: “Normally, it goes. » According to the calculations of an executive of the Republicans (LR) party, the pension reform must ” p “ with the support of the right in the National embly and allow the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, to keep section 49.3 in the boxes. But everything is in the “normal”.
Because in this winter soap opera, there is still one episode missing before a possible vote, Thursday March 16. The day before, the Joint Joint Committee (CMP) – responsible for finding a compromise between the National embly and the Senate – must deliver the final version of the text, then submitted to parliamentarians.
The suspense is not to be sought on the side of the Luxembourg Palace. Majority with its centrist ally, the senatorial right will follow without flinching. Its leader, Bruno Retailleau, has been hammering it for weeks in the name of the consistency and responsibility of a party which defended, during the last presidential election, a postponement of the legal age to 65.
The fear of the government comes exclusively from the Palais-Bourbon and these sixty-one LR deputies pampered and courted to bring their voice to the common pot or, failing that, to abstain. “The CMP can move a few voices on long careers for example, advances the deputy (LR) of the Vosges Stéphane Viry. And then, the LR group in the National embly is more heterogeneous than that of the Senate. » An understatement. “The LRs are a Mexican army of autoentrepreneurs”, was already ironic on January 11 the deputy (Renaissance) of Paris Sylvain Maillard. But a reserve army essential to the presidential camp.
However, the political agreement negotiated with his main generals never guaranteed the 35 or 40 votes necessary for a majority. In the entourage of Olivier Marleix (the president of the LR group in the National embly), the calculators indicate between 36 and 37 for and 17 and 19 against. Subtractions made, there would remain between five and eight undecided. Another source gives rather between eight and fifteen floating elected officials.
Laurent Wauquiez’s help will not come
They are the ones who can allow the majority to float or, on the contrary, make it sink. “Among these undecided, some have never spoken and even refuse to talk about it when asked the question”, observes Eric Pauget. According to the elected (LR) of the Alpes-Maritimes (favorable since the start of the reform), some comrades are tempted “to go to the swimming pool on Thursday” rather than uming their vote (for an unpopular law) in front of their voters. “The pressure is mounting in the constituency. For the first time, I had my permanence tagged in Antibes with “64 years old, it’s no”. Can this make some deputies move? », wonders this close friend of Eric Ciotti.
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