Persistent rumors are circulating on social networks that a second wave of mobilization may begin in Russia after the autumn elections.
Bloggers publish an order allegedly signed by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to which partial mobilization can begin as early as September 11. The head of the State Duma’s defense committee, Andrey Kartapolov, called this document “a fake, specially inserted into social networks”, and stated that there is no need for additional mobilization now.
There is no need for mobilization today, all tasks are performed within the framework of the active recruitment of servicemen under contract, stated the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense Andrey Kartapolov.
So those who write that a new wave of mobilization will begin today are spreading fakes! And what will be decided tomorrow or the day after tomorrow – will be announced additionally.
A team of independent CIT investigators also writes that Shoigu’s order is fake.
Meanwhile, the m media and bloggers find other signs that the authorities may be preparing for mobilization.
Ten signs that a new wave of mobilization is coming soon
Autumn is coming soon. And if you or your acquaintances suddenly overslept all summer, you might have missed that Putin continues to prepare for a new mobilization. I have collected for you 10 signs of this:
1. New fines: 30,000 rubles for not showing up at the military enlistment office, 0.5 million rubles fine on the organization for not notifying employees and many others.
2. Electronic subpoenas, the register of conscripts, the form of subpoenas, new laws for conscripts. Most of the laws apply to those who are mobilized.
3. Loss of rights due to failure to appear at the military enlistment office: loss of rights, prohibition of real estate transactions, registration of transport, registration of IP, non-issuance of loans, etc.
4. In the fall, in three readings, criminal liability for evasion of mobilization will be accepted. The government is already good for this.
5. Employees of some organizations (such as an “apartment company”) began to have their pensions extended.
6. Distribution of summonses for clarification of data; there are many such cases.
7. Mobilization departments are created in some municipalities.
8. No one canceled the old decree on mobilization.
9. Putin’s calculation of volunteers was not justified; according to experts, he managed to recruit only 30-50 thousand people. Critically few. They need rotation.
10. Mysterious official statements such as “there will be many interesting things in the fall.”
Name more signs, I must have missed something.
Whoever says that there will be no mobilization is a liar. Risks will greatly increase by autumn. You can ignore the facts and turn a blind eye. But the reality will not change from this, and it is necessary to prepare for it.
At once in several regions, including in Moscow, vacancies for “mobilization training specialists” are now open.
Many Russians, mobilized last fall, require the vacations prescribed for them by the rules, but do not receive them, since there is no one to replace them at the front.
Pro-war channels have been writing about the need for mobilization for a long time, and against the background of the successes of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, such posts are appearing in them more and more often.
While we behaved heroically. But after all, the target will not just repel the offensive, it will not let the enemy go further. The goal was to destroy him and move the army to the West. And the goal has not changed and will not change. The absence of blatant criticism of our military command benefited the war as a whole and the state of society. But do the military authorities understand how volatile such a situation is? A series of victories, successes, and better offensive actions of Russia, the people, the army, and society are now simply necessary. Bright and convincing. This is a sine qua non not only in war, but also in politics. The collapse of “Wagner” was partly motivated by the fact that in a fiery storm and an ocean of death, many things look so sharp that it is impossible to bear them. And in this sense, nothing has changed: the people/front has not yet received any basic message that the work on the mistakes has been done, but the military leadership.
And with mobilization, we hesitate (during war, the hesitations are similar to death, they bleed, undermine faith and determination).
The image of the future
Discussions about how many personnel would be sufficient for the SVO lead to one conclusion: neither 280,000 nor 400,000 will be enough. The more, the better. Because the bigger it is, the stronger the margin of safety, more frequent rotation and fewer chances of an enemy breakthrough. And they will plan to increase the group to the maximum possible within the framework of the autumn draft.
Propaganda will be built without breaking and official announcements.
The Kremlin will not announce the mobilization loudly, but will spread theses through a third party. Such a third party can be the Sobchak-Venediktov tandem – or each one individually – they will be supported by an authoritative military blogger like Sladkov. Dmytro Peskov will send everyone on issues of partial mobilization to the Ministry of Defense. The press service of the Ministry of Defense will answer that the mobilization did not end, since the President did not cancel the decree. Bloggers close to the Ministry of Defense will tell the details and the number of subpoenas sent and add that only a part of the citizens who received an “invitation” will go to the SVO zone. Laws of soft mobilization force have already been adopted by the State Duma, nothing will prevent the implementation of this plan.
Yes, there will be partial mobilization, possibly at the expense of new citizens from Central Asia. It cannot be avoided if we intend to at least hold the front, since we are suffering losses. Even if they are not as big as that side, but they are not small either – battles at the level of the Kursk Arc, with the use of thousands of shells, do not happen without casualties every day.
Kyiv is also suffering losses, but it is making up for them right away – videos about how they catch “Leopard drivers” flooded the network. So, there will be enough meat for the offensive. And for spring too.
If we don’t even want to break through the front, but to hold it, then we will have to replenish the composition, at least, to the level of April along the entire front line. This is very minimal. Now our best units are holding the defense. Replacing them with “mobikov” is ociated with great risks, and full-fledged second and third lines of defense and a reserve will be needed, which can quickly stop a possible enemy breakthrough.
So, yes – some form of mobilization will be good, if in the fall, so that in the spring people already have an idea of the service, and do not go to battle from a counter and a machine.
Polls indicate growing anxiety among Russians.
Other prominent commentators remind us that not only autumn, but also spring elections are on the horizon.
have mercy Who will announce the mobilization before the presidential elections?
Regional administrations are obliged not only to implement the draft plan, but also to attract volunteers, and this reduces the need for new mobilization, the channel writes DO NOT FIRE:
On October 1, the autumn conscription will start: taking into account the expansion of the conscription age from 18 to 30, the base of potential conscripts will be increased and the emphasis will be on working with it. Moreover, as practice shows, a significant number of conscripts can, after a few months, conclude contracts and take an active part in military training. However, this does not mean that the work of regional administrations in the search for volunteers will be curtailed. Sources indicate that it has already become regular and measures are required from the regional authorities to effectively implement the plans. The whole rhythm of the work is set on the basis of permanent tasks, accordingly, the question of increasing the efficiency of the work on the search for volunteers is still relevant. Many regional administrations, according to sources, complain about the lack of funds and a limited set of stimulus measures. Now this issue is one of the priorities for governors, especially those regions that have not implemented the plan.
Nevertheless, the general disposition makes new waves of mobilization in the coming months unlikely: rather, we are talking about already formed algorithms and principles of work of regional administrations with volunteers on a permanent basis, especially since sociology shows that a segment of those who are potentially considering contract service quite significant and, according to sociologists’ estimates, on the scale of the country, it is characterized by a number of several million people.
By the end of the year, the number of contract workers recruited per hour is planned to increase to 420,000 people, deputy Andrey Gurulev said.
The Russian authorities are already using all possible measures to get new soldiers to the front. Regional publications report on the active recruitment of migrants.
The new decree introduces military registration for prisoners, while amnesty after participation in hostilities is canceled.
Putin’s decree on partial mobilization is still in effect, so it will continue in a “creeping” form, the publisher of “Mediazon” is confident Sergey Smirnov:
From the point of view of logic, a new wave of mobilization is inevitable. And new forces are needed at the front and rotation. Not only that, the state is definitely preparing for mobilization: so many laws have been adopted.
But logic does not always work if there are political considerations. It seems that the first mobilization was extremely painful for Putin and, obviously, he set himself the task of avoiding such in the future.
Hence the constant numbers of recruited contractors, the hunt for migrants with Russian citizenship, and so on.
The political scientist believes that talk about the fact that mobilization is not beneficial for Putin is primarily beneficial for the Kremlin Ivan Preobrazhensky:
The Kremlin is trying to convince everyone that it has postponed the decision on a new wave of mobilization due to the presidential elections in March 2024, as it fears a repeat of the drop in Putin’s rating. Meanwhile, almost all the laws under the m appeal were ped in the summer, in the fall the deputies will consider the last one – on imprisonment for evasion of the mobilization service.
Earlier, the head of the State Duma defense committee, Andrey Kartapolov, said that they were written “for a big war” and, according to him, “already smells of it.”
A gloomy forecast is also given Leonid Volkov:
Let me make a prediction: a new m wave of mobilization in Russia no later than October 31.
Why? Here are some key factors.
Of course, the main thing is the exhaustion of the resources of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Moaning in the swamps in z-channels is getting louder, literally “someone to hold the front”.
But wasn’t this a reason for mobilization before? It was not, because the first wave an hour ago turned into a political failure, a drop in ratings, and public dissatisfaction. And the decision was made: to do without the second wave. But Putin will have to reconsider this decision.
How did you ask “getting by without the second wave”?
1) Prisoners. They ended stupidly. Prigozhin converted tens of thousands of convicts into cannon fodder, there are no more fools.
2) Volunteers. They are not there and were not. In general. None.
Despite all the demands and campaigning.
3) Migrants. Roundups were organized, various terrible laws were ped. But people are smarter, they prefer to leave, but they die if they don’t go.
4) Coercion. Creation of PMCs at state corporations, deployments to structures such as Roscosmos and Rostech. We have reached the limit, there will be no one to work.
Despite all the rampant propaganda, Putin failed to make the war “people’s”. No rush, no queues at military enlistment offices. When the Kremlin talks about “volunteers”, this number includes convicts, migrants, and those who were taken away by force – but there is still a shortage.
Therefore, at all political costs (and they are huge), the Kremlin cannot do without the second wave. The State Duma ped draconian laws aimed at ensuring that no one else could escape through Verkhnyi Lars, in this regard they have everything ready. But why until the end of October?
There are two key factors here.
1) The mobilized must be trained, armed, and prepared. And at this time, someone must hold the front. Last year, Prigozhin solved this very problem for Putin – while the mobilized were in school, the prisoners were dying near Bakhmut. But this option no longer exists.
2) And of course, the “election” factor in March 2024. The Kremlin already knows that the discontent will be significant. It is not possible right before the election, you have to be in time to forget; in time it will be softened by something. So, the deadlines are generally getting shorter. September, end of October.
Summary: full-scale mobilization – very soon. Not because “my cousin’s aunt works at the military enlistment office, and she leaked an accurate insider” — but because Putin simply has no second chance. He needs to drink fresh blood, more and faster.
Take care of yourself.