Posted Jan 25, 2023, 11:59 AMUpdated Jan 25, 2023, 12:00 PM
Growth is slowing down severely, but unemployment continues to fall. The number of unemployed jobseekers registered with Pôle emploi, classified in category A, fell further by 3.6% in the fourth quarter in France excluding Mayotte, to an average of just under 3.05 million people. , according to figures published by the operator and the Ministry of Labor on Wednesday. Or 114,000 less compared to the previous quarter. Over one year, the decline in the number of employees in this category, the most scrutinized, reached 9.3%.
At the same time, the number of registrants who worked less than 78 hours each month (category B) continued to increase sharply (+39,200, +5.0%), as did that of category C, those who declared more than 78 hours (+34,400 or +2.3%). In total over the months of October to December, Pôle emploi recorded 5.4 million people in these three categories, i.e. 41,000 less (-0.8% over the quarter, -5.1% over one year ). If the registrations have increased, the exits even more.
The labor market resists
These developments confirm the very good performance of hiring last year as shown by recent Urssaf statistics, with in particular more than 5 million CDIs signed. Even if the economists lose themselves in conjectures, it is clear that the French economy continues to grow rich in employment. But until when ?
A published study a little less than a year ago by the Ministry of Labor and France Stratégie anticipated 760,000 vacancies on average by 2030, based on retirements and arrivals of young people on the labor market. A regional version was published on Tuesday. It shows that the dynamism of employment will continue to benefit the coastal and southern areas but that, as a result, these same regions will suffer the most difficulties in obtaining jobs.
On the other hand, the North-East quarter of France will experience fewer recruitment tensions due to a lower number of job creations. Between the two, Ile-de-France will occupy an intermediate position. This new study is based on forecasts of retirements, the arrival of young people on the labor market and mobility between regions, but does not take into account – which constitutes its limitation – the flows of people leaving the unemployment in particular nor the effects of pension reform wanted by the government.
More information to follow…