DECRYPTION – The 2024 budget marks the end of “whatever it takes” against a backdrop of falling inflation and low growth. The public deficit and debt will remain very high.
The main points of the 2024 budget are becoming clearer a few days before its presentation on September 27. The development of the text in a context of a sudden turnaround in the economic environment gave the Bercy teams a hard time. Its defense before parliamentarians promises to be just as difficult for the ministers of Bercy, Bruno Le Maire in Finance for seven years, and Thomas Cazenave, appointed to Public Accounts during the last reshuffle last summer.
The content of the bill thus reflects a triple constraint. The economic situation, first of all, has deteriorated significantly while the resistance of inflation requires high interest rates to be maintained for longer than expected – to the point of pushing the European Central Bank (ECB) this Thursday to announce a tenth increase in its rates in a few months. Economic activity suffers from this tightening, “as the situation of our major trading partners, with the recession in Germany and the difficulties in China